Articles in Journals
We measure stock market co-exeedances using the methodology of Cappiello, Gerard and Manganelli (2005, ECB Working Paper 501).  This method is based on quantile regressions and enables us to measure comovement at each point of the return distribution. First, we construct an annual co-exeedance probability for the 5, 10, 25, 75, 90 and 95 percent return quantiles using daily data from 1974-2006. Next, we explain these probabilities in a panel gravity model framework. This analysis shows that macroeconomic events asymmetrically influence comovement of upper and lower tail returns. Financial liberalization has a positive impact on comovement across the return distribution, but its effect is strongest on the left tail quantiles. Trade competition weakly impact the 5%, 10% and 95% quantiles, but has a stronger influence on the other quantiles. Industrial dissimilarity has a strong effect on both tails, but not on the 25% and 75% quantiles. Exchange rate volatilities have a strong effect only on the 5% and 10% quantiles. However, the introduction of the euro has its most pronounced effect on upper quantile comovement.
By distinguishing between discretionary and non-discretionary fiscal policy, this paper analyses the stability of fiscal rules for EMU countries before and after the Maastricht Treaty. Using both Instrumental Variables and GMM techniques, it turns out that discretionary fiscal policy remains procyclical after 1992. This result contradicts the previous findings of Galí and Perotti (2003). It also appears that fiscal rules differ between large and small countries: especially large countries follow a procyclical discretionary policy. Furthermore, the paper shows that discretionary fiscal policy does exhibit different behaviour facing supply or demand constraints. The procyclical discretionary policy is followed mainly during upswings, when supply constraints are prevalent. Finally, there is no support for the presence of a ‘fatigue effect’ in fiscal discipline.

Working papers
This paper studies the dynamic adjustment process of international investors' asset allocations. Standard portfolio theory suggests that home biased investors should invest in foreign assets which have low comovement with their domestic stock market. The year-to-year portfolio adjustment process is studied in a dynamic panel System-GMM framework, taking explicit care of the potential endogeneity of comovement. CPIS data on bilateral cross-border equity holdings is used, capturing 40 source countries and 44 host countries from 2001-2007. Results show that investors adapt their international portfolio allocations rationally, by investing less in foreign stock markets which comove strongly with their domestic one. Failing to account for endogeneity results in biased estimates leading to potentially misleading conclusions. The investor's rational behavior is confirmed using both correlations and coexceedance probabilities to capture comovement. However, investors do not reduce their equity holdings in those foreign stock markets which show large lower tail comovement with their domestic stock market. This shows that extreme negative risks are not optimally diversified.
Remittances have greatly increased during recent years, becoming an important and reliable source of funds for many developing countries. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for receiving countries to attract more remittances, especially through formal channels. One way of doing so is to increase their financial openness, but this is not without costs. More specifically for developing countries, governments need to weight the positive effects of remittances with the additional risks in terms of macroeconomic volatility associated to financial openness. In this paper we investigate the link between remittance receipts and financial openness. We develop a small model and statistically test for the existence of such a relationship with a sample of 66 mostly developing countries from 1980-2005. Empirically we use a dynamic generalized ordered logit model to deal with the categorical nature of the financial openness policy. We account for the persistence of financial openness, initial conditions, trade openness, institutional quality and domestic financial development. In addition, we apply a two\--step method akin to two stage least squares to deal with the potential endogeneity of remittances. We find a strong positive effect of remittances on financial openness, i.e. the more remittances a country receives, the more likely it will be financially open. This positive effect is both statistically significant and economically large.
This paper analyzes the empirical link between asset prices, consumption and the trade balance using a global macroeconometric model developed by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004). The model is estimated for 29 countries with quarterly data over the period 1981Q1 - 2006Q4. Motivated by increasing international financial and real integration, and pronounced cycles in stock and housing prices, we employ generalized impulse response functions for a group of five of the world's most industrialized countries and show that shocks to asset prices transmit into consumption decisions and subsequently into the trade balance. We refer to this transmission channel as the international wealth effect and find it to be present in the US, UK and, to a lesser extent, in France, but absent in Japan and Germany.
    Work in progress
      • Global Housing Market Contagion, with C. Bruneau and O. Kaabia
      • Nonstationary Stock Market Dependence: A Factor Model Approach, with C. Gengenbach and H. Manner